A detailed analysis at thetariffcost.com provides a breakdown of tariff costs borne by Americans since 2025, based on customs data and trade statistics.
According to the site, U.S. Customs has collected duty on shipments of Canadian goods crossing the border. This money is paid by American importers at the point of entry. The analysis distinguishes between these actual duties collected and a modeled estimate of what tariffs cost American households overall.
The household-cost model is broader in scope, covering tariffs on all U.S. imports since 2025—not just Canadian goods, but also imports from China, Mexico, the EU, and others. However, the model includes one key assumption: how much of a duty businesses pass along to consumers versus absorb themselves. This pass-through rate varies firm by firm and cannot be measured directly from trade data.
Canada has responded with counter-tariffs on American exports. According to the analysis, Canada’s current tariff list applies a 25% rate to steel and other products. In September, Canada is set to add a 50% tier covering hundreds of American steel and aluminum lines, along with groceries.
The analysis notes a critical distinction: Canada’s counter-tariffs are paid by Canadian importers and affect Canadian prices, while they ultimately hit American exporters—the workers and companies making products on the tariff list. Washington’s tariffs on Canadian goods, by contrast, are collected at the American border and paid by American importers.
The analysis is built from six public datasets, all from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Finance Canada. These include duty collected on Canadian imports, state-level export data by commodity and industry, energy imports by state, household counts, and Canada’s complete counter-tariff list.
The site acknowledges significant limitations. It cannot determine how much of any tariff reaches shelf prices, predict future price changes, calculate exact job losses, or determine what share of any industry’s exports is affected. The analysis also flags that a single tariff line may represent anywhere from nearly no trade to over a billion dollars in commerce, so line counts alone are misleading without corresponding dollar figures.
Key facts
- U.S. Customs has collected duty on Canadian goods since 2025, with amounts tracked through official trade data
- A household-cost model estimates broader tariff impacts on American consumers, covering tariffs on all imports including China, Mexico, and the EU
- Canada currently applies 25% tariffs on steel and other American exports, with plans to add a 50% tier and include groceries in September
- The analysis distinguishes between duties paid by American importers (on Canadian goods) and those affecting American exporters (from Canadian counter-tariffs)
- The data comes from six public sources including U.S. Census Bureau trade statistics and Department of Finance Canada records