An opinion article published on Current Affairs contends that the most significant obstacle to climate action is not denial of global warming itself, but rather a pervasive narrative that humanity has more time to address it.
According to the piece, only 14.8 percent of Americans deny the basic science of global warming—a figure comparable to those who believe the Earth is flat. Instead, the article argues, a more insidious lie has taken hold across mainstream institutions: that climate change, while real, is not urgent.
The author cites Sir David King, former science advisor to the United Kingdom and professor at Oxford and Cambridge, who stated in 2021 that “what we do over the next three to four years will determine the fate of humankind.”
The article identifies various forms this narrative takes, including promises of “Net-zero emissions by 2050,” framing individual carbon footprints as the primary concern rather than corporate emissions, dismissing expressions of urgency as “doomerism,” and treating climate as a political issue rather than an existential one.
The piece emphasizes what it describes as a critical loss of context. According to the article, the last three years have averaged above the Paris Accords’ 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for the first time in over 100,000 years. The article projects that warming could reach 1.7 degrees Celsius next year due to El Niño conditions, approaching the 2-degree Celsius mark.
The author argues that 2 degrees Celsius warming represents a critical threshold because it would move Earth’s climate outside the Holocene—an 11,000-year period of relative stability that enabled agriculture, cities, written language, and modern civilization. The article contrasts this with the Pleistocene era preceding it, when humans and hominid ancestors faced constant environmental challenges and the global population remained in the millions.
According to the article, if institutions and officials continue promoting the message that climate collapse is a distant concern, “human civilization as we know it will collapse and billions could die,” with this collapse occurring within years rather than centuries.
Key facts
- Only 14.8 percent of Americans deny the basic science of global warming, according to polling cited in the article
- The last three years have averaged above 1.5 degrees Celsius warming, likely the first time in over 100,000 years
- Warming is projected to reach 1.7 degrees Celsius next year due to El Niño conditions
- The Holocene, a 11,000-year stable climate period, enabled the development of agriculture, cities, and modern civilization
- Global population has grown to 8 billion during the Holocene, compared to a few million during the preceding Pleistocene era