According to Steve Blank, a technology entrepreneur and analyst who recently spent time in London, European policymakers are reassessing their dependence on U.S. technology following the U.S. decision to restrict intelligence and throttle the military version of Starlink, called Starshield, to Ukraine.
The restrictions, which according to the Wall Street Journal were personally ordered by Elon Musk, affected military operations during an active conflict. Blank notes that while this news received limited attention in the U.S., it resonated significantly across Europe, confirming long-standing concerns among U.K. and European policymakers about the potential for American companies to unilaterally disconnect critical systems.
According to Blank, European decision-makers fear the precedent this sets. The concern extends beyond Starlink to other major U.S. technology providers. Blank writes that conversations he heard included questions about what would happen if other U.S. CEOs at companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, Oracle, Palantir, or Google were to restrict or deny access to their products. European officials worry about losing critical capabilities if enterprise software and AI systems were to become unavailable.
This incident has accelerated discussions about digital sovereignty in Europe. Blank argues that the development of artificial intelligence is lowering the cost barriers to recreating software features and functions of major U.S. products like Microsoft Office, Oracle, Salesforce, and Palantir. He notes that AI makes developing sovereign alternatives “well within the capabilities of most nations.”
From a business perspective, Blank predicts significant consequences for American technology companies. If every U.S. vendor is now perceived as a “kill-switch risk,” the market for American technology in allied countries will shrink. As European nations recognize the vulnerability of depending solely on U.S. systems, they will invest in building alternatives, potentially costing American companies “tens if not hundreds of billions of lost revenue” in coming years.
Blank concludes that U.S. founders selling into European defense or government sectors will now face questions about who controls access to their technology before initial meetings, while European technology companies have gained digital sovereignty as a marketable advantage.
Key facts
- According to the Wall Street Journal, Elon Musk personally ordered restrictions on Starshield to Ukraine
- European policymakers view the U.S. as potentially unreliable on security and technology
- AI technology is reducing the cost of building European alternatives to major U.S. software products
- European nations are increasingly concerned about kill-switch risks from American technology providers
- Blank predicts potential loss of tens to hundreds of billions in U.S. technology revenue