Since February 2026, when the US and Israel entered conflict with Iran, global oil consumption has exceeded production, forcing reliance on stored reserves. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea has cut off approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply, according to the Depletion Ledger, a tracking system that monitors oil supplies, fuel prices, and shortage impacts.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined sharply from 415.4 million barrels before the war to 285.4 million barrels as of September 4, marking the lowest level since December 1982. The reserve has been depleted by 129 million barrels since February 28, with an additional 95 million barrels drawn down in August alone, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Fuel prices have surged across the board. Brent crude rose 40% from pre-crisis levels of approximately $76 to $105.68 as of September 14. US diesel reached a record $6.27 on September 15—a 68% increase from $3.72 before the war—marking six consecutive price records. Gasoline climbed 54% from $2.81 in January to $4.33 by mid-September.
The International Energy Administration estimates the full-year 2026 supply loss at 5.7 million barrels per day, representing roughly 6% of the world’s oil supply. Global production fell to 100.1 million barrels per day in August, with over 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production remaining offline. Russian refinery strikes and export bans have compounded the shortage.
Global commercial oil stocks have declined 400 million barrels year-to-date, while the IEA coordinated release has pulled 400 million barrels from 32 countries. China has withdrawn approximately 2–3 million barrels per day from commercial stockpiles, according to customs data analysis.
The supply shortfall persists, with the IEA forecasting a remaining deficit of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2026. The IEA expects Middle East oil flows to remain below normal through 2027, indicating extended pressure on global reserves.
Key facts
- US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 285.4M barrels as of Sep 4—lowest since Dec 1982
- Global oil consumption exceeds production by approximately 2.8M barrels per day on average since February
- Brent crude up 40% to $105.68; US diesel up 68% to record $6.27; gasoline up 54% to $4.33
- Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea closure cuts off roughly 20% of world oil supply
- IEA estimates full-year 2026 supply loss at 5.7M barrels per day (about 6% of global supply)