The nonfiction book market has undergone a dramatic reversal over the past decade, according to analysis from Dear Head of Mine. In 2015, nonfiction made up the majority of the top 25 bestselling hardcover books, with only 6 of 25 being fiction. By 2025, that relationship has nearly inverted—18 of the top 25 hardcover bestsellers are now fiction, leaving only 7 nonfiction titles.
Historically, nonfiction was considered the publishing industry’s most stable category. Publishers typically offered higher advances for nonfiction, betting on established platforms—celebrity authors, experts, and recognizable figures with built-in audiences. Nonfiction proposals often sold on as little as 30-120 pages of material, with publishers essentially commissioning books from high-profile personalities rather than betting on literary quality.
That stability has evaporated. According to the source, the entire hardcover nonfiction bestseller list sold just 42,000 copies over one tracked week, while the top two fiction bestsellers alone—“The Calamity Club” and “Yesteryear”—sold 52,000 copies combined. The collapse is partly driven by changing media dynamics. Platform reach no longer reliably translates to book sales in a fragmented media landscape, and parasocial connections between authors and readers have become more predictive of success than traditional celebrity status.
However, the root cause appears deeper: a fundamental erosion of trust in authority and expertise. According to Gallup data cited in the analysis, trust in media has fallen to an all-time low of 28 percent in the US, down from 40 percent five years earlier. The proportion of Americans expressing “none at all” trust in media has risen from 24 percent to 34 percent.
Since nonfiction is primarily consumed for information and learning rather than entertainment, declining trust in authoritative sources directly impacts readership. The shift mirrors broader societal trends toward self-education and skepticism of institutional expertise, with readers increasingly turning to social media and unvetted online sources instead of traditional books and journalism.
The gender composition of nonfiction publishing also reflects imbalance. Of the top 25 nonfiction bestsellers in 2025, 15 were authored by men, 8 by women, and 2 by organizations. This contrasts with fiction readership, which skews 80 percent female, while nonfiction readership remains roughly 50-50 by gender.
Key facts
- Fiction now comprises 18 of top 25 bestselling hardcovers versus 6 a decade ago
- Top nonfiction bestseller list sold 42,000 copies in one week versus 52,000 for just the top two fiction titles
- Trust in media has fallen to 28 percent, down from 40 percent five years ago
- Americans expressing “none at all” trust in media rose from 24 percent to 34 percent
- 15 of top 25 nonfiction bestsellers in 2025 were authored by men, 8 by women