Fewer American renters expect to move in coming years, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The mean three-year probability that renters will relocate dropped from roughly 57 percent in 2014 to about 37 percent in 2026—a 20 percentage point decline—based on data from the New York Fed’s SCE Housing Survey.
This pattern reflects a broader national trend. Overall U.S. moving rates have fallen steadily for decades, declining from close to 20 percent annually in the mid-1980s to below 10 percent by 2019, according to the report. The decline has persisted across business cycles and affected all regions and demographic groups.
For renters specifically, declining mobility appears linked to shrinking expectations of homeownership. Renters’ average probability of ever owning a home dropped from roughly 52 percent in 2015 to about 35 percent by 2025, with particularly sharp declines after 2021. The connection is stark: renters reporting a low probability of ever owning a home (0–20 percent chance) show a mean three-year moving probability of about 25 percent, compared with about 76 percent among those nearly certain they will own—a difference exceeding 50 percentage points.
Mortgage affordability emerges as a primary factor. According to the survey, the share of renters reporting that obtaining a mortgage would be “very difficult” rose from around 27 percent in 2021 to over 45 percent by 2024. During the same period, the median mortgage rate renters expect to receive nearly doubled, climbing from about 3.3 percent to nearly 6.8 percent.
Renters perceiving mortgages as more difficult to obtain or expecting higher rates report substantially lower expected mobility. Those saying mortgage access would be “very easy” report a mean three-year moving probability of about 66 percent, versus about 42 percent among those saying it would be “very difficult.”
However, preference for homeownership remains relatively stable. The share of renters saying they would prefer to own a home if financially able has fluctuated between 65 and 74 percent since 2015, standing at about 65 percent in 2026. Similarly, views on homeownership as an investment have remained in the 51 to 68 percent range since 2015.
The research suggests that renters’ reduced expectations about homeownership and lower expected mobility reflect affordability constraints rather than diminishing desire to own. Renters account for roughly one-third of U.S. households and, unlike homeowners, are not subject to mortgage rate lock-in, making their moving patterns significant for understanding broader residential mobility trends.
Key facts
- Renters’ mean three-year moving probability fell from 57% in 2014 to 37% in 2026
- Renters’ average probability of ever owning a home declined from 52% in 2015 to 35% by 2025
- Share of renters saying mortgages would be ‘very difficult’ to obtain rose from 27% in 2021 to over 45% by 2024
- Median expected mortgage rate for renters nearly doubled from 3.3% in 2021 to 6.8% by 2024
- 65-74% of renters say they would prefer to own a home if financially able, indicating stable preferences