The United Nations Environment Programme’s 2026 Emissions Gap Report concludes that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming target is no longer viable. According to the report, titled “The Point of Return,” the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels “with ‘no or limited’ overshoot has been lost.”
Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is now “imminent and inevitable,” the report states. UNEP says the revised objective is to ensure global warming remains below 2°C while aiming to return temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
The report emphasizes that “every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C raises the risk of irreversible changes including in ice sheets, permafrost carbon, ocean circulation and coral systems, along with devastating human impacts.”
To achieve the new targets, global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared to 2025 levels. This requires roughly 6% annual reductions through 2035. However, current commitments from governments—known as nationally determined contributions—would only achieve 5% to 8% reductions by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.
UNEP identifies several necessary actions: tripling renewable energy capacity by 2035, phasing out fossil fuels with specific targets (55% reduction for coal, 15% for oil, and 5% for gas by 2035), and large-scale carbon removal. The organization estimates that 320 gigatons of CO2—equivalent to eight times 2024 emissions—must be removed from the atmosphere by century’s end through reforestation and technological storage methods.
Despite the grim outlook, UNEP Chief Inger Andersen notes progress since 2015: renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, solar deployment increased seven times faster than expected, and coal and oil growth remained slower than projected. Several G20 members have achieved sustained emission reductions. However, the report concludes this progress remains insufficient, particularly regarding fossil fuel phase-out and deforestation.
Key facts
- The 1.5°C goal from the Paris Agreement is now unachievable within a decade
- Exceeding 1.5°C warming is now inevitable; the revised goal is to stay below 2°C and return to 1.5°C by 2100
- Global emissions must be cut 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 (compared to 2025 levels)
- Current government commitments would only achieve 5-8% reductions by 2030, far short of needed cuts
- Renewable energy capacity must triple by 2035; coal, oil, and gas must be reduced by 55%, 15%, and 5% respectively
- 320 gigatons of CO2 must be removed from the atmosphere by century’s end