Jabber/XMPP, a decentralized messaging protocol, faces an uphill battle gaining users despite offering comparable features to mainstream alternatives like Signal, according to analysis by developer Daniel Gultsch.
Gultsch outlines several obstacles to XMPP adoption. He notes that while Signal has become popular, the app suffers from reliability issues—including unreliable notifications, inability to answer calls in Do Not Disturb mode, and rendering glitches—yet users stay because their contacts are already there.
When comparing XMPP’s uptake to Matrix, a competing federated protocol allegedly designed to address XMPP’s shortcomings, Gultsch finds little meaningful difference. According to F-Droid download statistics cited in his analysis, Conversations (an XMPP client) has 630,000 downloads compared to Element X (a Matrix client) with 940,000—less than double. On Google Play, the gap is similarly modest: Conversations at approximately 310,000 versus Element X between 500,000 and 1 million downloads. “Not even orders of magnitude,” Gultsch writes, undermining claims that Matrix is substantially more popular.
He argues the fundamental problem is not technical quality but network effects. Messaging apps derive value almost entirely from how many contacts already use them—a barrier so powerful that even major tech companies have failed to overcome it. Google launched multiple messaging products without success. Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $16 billion rather than building a competitor, recognizing that established user bases cannot easily be replicated through engineering alone.
Gultsch points to regional variation—LINE dominating Japan, WhatsApp dominating Western Europe, iMessage standard in the US—as evidence that objective technical superiority does not determine messaging app success. “There are only two features people actually care about: reliable message delivery and the ability to reach their friends,” he writes.
The author argues that increasing XMPP’s visibility represents the most viable path forward. When XMPP enters public consciousness, responses typically reflect unfamiliarity rather than fundamental objection to decentralized communication. “I didn’t know this existed” or “I didn’t know this was still around” are common reactions, often accompanied by outdated perceptions of the technology.
Gultsch suggests that demonstrating XMPP’s modern capabilities—rather than developing new features—could meaningfully shift adoption. He argues appeals to individual responsibility about visibility are justified because the cost of promoting XMPP adoption is relatively low.
Key facts
- According to F-Droid download statistics, Conversations (XMPP) has 630,000 downloads versus Element X (Matrix) at 940,000—less than double the downloads.
- Google failed repeatedly to establish messaging products; Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $16 billion rather than building a competitor.
- Gultsch identifies only two features users actually care about: reliable message delivery and the ability to reach their friends.
- Federated messaging platforms like XMPP and Mastodon struggle for adoption despite having feature parity with mainstream alternatives.
- XMPP adoption is hindered by visibility and outdated perceptions rather than technical limitations, according to the analysis.